June 12

On Saturday, June 12 1993, millions of democracy craving, freedom hungry Nigerians went to the polls to cast their vote in what was billed as one of the most free and fair voting process in the country. A day later, it was obvious who the winner of that election was going to be; Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola (a.k.a MKO Abiola). But that official declaration was never made and the nation was thrown into chaos. And the United States, Nigeria’s largest crude customer and one of its leading trading partners in the world and arguably one of the leading influences in a nation that remained largely a satellite of  the United Kingdom, watched disinterestedly from the sidelines.

The pro-democracy and civil right community (while mostly self serving) prayed to no end for some real expression of outrage for the resulting descent into anarchy, chaos, misrule, exponential growth of corruption and multitudes of government sanctioned para and extra judicial murder in a country once billed as the giant of Africa, from the US. And  on July 7, 1998 the US seemed to have responded, but not the way any Nigerian would have anticipated. MKO Abiola died of what was apparently a heart failure, while in the presence of a US delegation that was auspiciously discussing is impeding release haven accepted and drank a cup of tea offered by now US ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice.

Sixteen years later, Iran chose another June 12 to express its democratic ambitions. While the circumstances and potentially the outcomes may be different, America’s response so far has been far from holistic and responsive to the aspirations of the people.  Almost a fortnight after what was billed as one of Iranian most spirited electioneering campaign ever and leading to an expected shock at the ballot box; Iranians have been grappling with chaos, anarchy and a crackdown on the streets as they people express outrage at what they consider a stolen mandate.

Once again, the spirit of M.K.O. Abiola roams the street, only this time it roams the street of Iran and not the streets of Nigeria. And once again, like in Nigeria, the US response is muted and as President Obama said in one of his responses; America must keep its security interest in mind.

In 1993, and through the five years, considered one of the darkest in Nigeria, the US made it clear it was not willing to declare and oil embargo on Nigeria because of the potential impact that will have on the world’s oil market, and given that America’s options for energy sources was already limited given the sanctions against Iran, Iraq and Libya. Nigeria was then the third largest foreign supplier of energy to the US accounting for almost 20% of US crude imports in 1996. America’s economic security could have been at stake; at least so thought President Clinton and his team then.  On June 8 1998, the leading beneficiary of the June 12 1993 election annulment in Nigeria, General Sani Abacha was pronounced dead after a very suspicious sets of events. Abiola died 29 days later.

Someone must believe they understood Nigeria, and that killing the two leading figures (Abacha and Abiola), both representing the two geographical segment of that nation (North and South, respectively) will somehow pacify that nation and hopefully set it on course to become a model democracy in the midst of a chaotic continent.

In Iran, America faces a similar dilemma, albeit, without same level of access to the principals or seven level of influence after decades of sanctions and campaign to turn that nation into an international pariah.  President Obama’s outreach to “rogue” states is genuine enough, but his team is riddled with principals with plethora of objectives, ideologies and interests.

Iranians, at least from the images from the streets of Iran, are crying for deliverance. The youths, women and men of Iran are whispering (in the words of a New York Times columnists) to be heard.  A once in a lifetime opportunity to engage and win a people beckons. But like in Nigeria sixteen years ago, will America rise to the occasion to lead not just in innuendoes but in deed? Will President Obama really descend from Mt. Equivocation and ascend the hills of certitude demonstrating clear leadership. America’s role in the world does not stop and end at America’s short term security or even economic interests. The world (the people of the various nations of the world) look to one nation for moral and inspirational leadership. They do so because they can find within America, someone that looks like them. America has in the last 50 years become the capital of the world.  The world’s most powerful and richest nation ever is also seen by the poor and hopeful of the world as the beacon of home and the model of leadership.

The Iranian’s while appreciative of  a thinking President in the white house may also need a thoughtful Machiavelli on their side as they battle decades of mulla rule and suppression of their rights. Hopefully this time, the response from Washington will not leave a bile taste in the people’s mouth decades hence.